Orange County will remain in the red tier of the state’s pandemic tracking system this week after a reversal in one of two coronavirus metrics that had been declining consistently kept the county from landing in the less-restrictive orange tier.
The guilty figure is the county’s rate of new COVID-19 cases, a critical indicator that shows public health officials how quickly the virus is spreading when studied over time.
Because of near-constant drops in Orange County’s case rate and testing positivity – the share of tests coming back positive –since July, public health officials had been hopeful the county was on track to spend just the minimum three weeks in the more-restrictive red tier.
Counties are required to meet the next tier’s case rate and testing positive goals for two weeks to move on. Orange County’s case rate fell in the orange tier range last week. This week, it went over.
The county’s rate of new COVID-19 cases rose to 4.4 cases per day per 100,000 residents this week from 3.6 last week, according to the state Department of Public Health. The orange tier’s case rate target is 1 to 4 daily cases per 100,000 residents.
The share of tests returning positive was unchanged since last week at 3.1%, meeting the orange tier goal.
Orange County likely missed its marks this week because new coronavirus infections over Labor Day weekend are finally showing up in testing data, said Dr. Clayton Chau, Orange County Health Care Agency director and county health officer.
From Sept. 13 through 19, “we did have a few days of uptick in the numbers; small, but significant (enough) to affect our tier,” Chau said.
A drop to the orange tier, for “moderate” coronavirus risk, would have meant that previously closed bars and breweries – the ones not serving food – could have open outdoors as early as Tuesday. Bowling alleys, wineries, card rooms and indoor climbing walls could have opened at one-quarter capacity.
On Monday, Gov. Gavin Newsom warned of signs that a second wave could be building, citing recent growth in Southern California and the Bay Area of the average number of people who are infected by each COVID-19 carrier. The metric is not included in the state’s pandemic tracking system.
The state health department calculates counties’ new case rates and testing positivity each Tuesday, which determines which of four tiers counties fall into and which businesses and public sectors can reopen.
Counties must remain in a tier – purple, red, orange or yellow – for at least three weeks and qualify for the next tier for two weeks to advance. Tiers can’t be skipped and counties that backtrack in either of the two key metrics could return to stricter status.
Orange County’s metrics appear to be bottoming out – and perhaps increasing slightly – following two months of sustained drops in case rates and testing positivity. A surge in mid-July, when un-adjusted case rates neared 27 cases per day per 100,000 residents, gave way to improving trends in August and September.
COVID-19 hospitalizations also have fallen significantly over the past two months.
When state health officials phased out the old pandemic watch list to spotlight coronavirus-troubled counties in late August, they also adjusted the case rate to take county testing volumes into account.
Counties that test more per capita than the state average get a case rate bonus, while counties that test below average are penalized.
For the week ending Sept. 19, Orange County averaged 209 tests per day per 100,000 residents, just below the state average of 216 tests per 100,000 and an improvement over previous weeks in September.
However, Orange County’s case rate in Tuesday’s update was not adjusted for falling below the testing average because of a state health department exception: If a county’s testing positivity falls below 3.5%, as Orange County’s did this week, the case rate won’t be adjusted for testing volume.
Chau has recently warned that “testing fatigue” in Orange County could lead to public and private testing sites swabbing fewer people per day than they have the capacity for.
The best thing Californians can do to preserve the state’s gains against the coronavirus, Newsom said, is to keep up now-ingrained pandemic habits: wear a mask, wash hands frequently and stay 6 feet apart from others in public.
There is also a silver lining this week for kids ready to hit the swings.
The state Department of Public Health announced Monday that local governments could reopen all public, outdoor playgrounds – regardless of a county’s tier status – to kids and their parents or guardians, as long visitors age 2 and up wear masks, social distance and wash their hands, among other guidelines.
Staff Writer Alicia Robinson contributed to this report.
The Link LonkSeptember 30, 2020 at 02:11AM
https://www.ocregister.com/orange-county-remains-on-states-red-tier-for-coronavirus-restrictions-because-of-bump-in-case-rates
Orange County remains on state’s red tier for coronavirus restrictions because of bump in case rates - OCRegister
https://news.google.com/search?q=Red&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en
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