The Covid-19 testing site operated by New York State in the Cobblestone District.
Erie County recorded its highest total number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic, with 771 new cases on Wednesday.
Hospitalizations are nearly back to their levels in April and May, with 78% of hospital beds in the county occupied.
Deaths are spiking too.
"We are starting to see what would be considered the Thanksgiving spike," Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz said Friday in a video news conference.
The day before Thanksgiving, the region held its collective breath over worries that Gov. Andrew Cuomo was about to declare at least part of Erie County a "red zone," which would force non-essential businesses to close and ban all gatherings of people outside a household.
Yet as of Friday, the state hasn't pulled the trigger. Buffalo and most of its suburbs remain classified as an "orange zone," with schools, gyms and personal care facilities shut down and indoor dining banned. The rest of Erie County, and part of Niagara County, remain in the more precautionary "yellow zone."
Poloncarz said Friday that he can't answer whether the county will shut down further.
"I do not know the answer to that," he said. "I think the increased hospitalizations is going to be a significant concern as New York State looks at it."
Erie County officials are having ongoing conversations with Cuomo's office about the possibility of going red and also other actions to make sure hospitals aren't overwhelmed.
It all depends on whether the numbers of new cases and hospitalizations keep rising.
"They're analyzing this data with regards to the Thanksgiving spike (to) see if it actually does exist to the degree that we're worried about and any impact it will have on hospitalizations," Poloncarz said. "We're down to the lowest bed capacity that we've had in our hospitals in quite some time – 78% of the beds in the hospitals are occupied. So we're very worried that we will get to a point where we can't handle it."
Cuomo said Friday that Western New York continues to have the highest daily positivity rate in the state for Covid at 7.8% but that that the state is much more focused on what's going on in the region's hospitals.
"The infection rate is not that relevant any more," he said. "We're focusing on the hospitalization rate and hospital capacity."
He said hospitalizations are a better gauge of the level of the virus' spread.
"They don't go into a hospital if they're feeling well. They don't go into a hospital to play politics. They don't go into a hospital if Covid is a hoax. They're going into a hospital because they're sick," he said.
County and state officials are talking about "supplemental locations" for Covid-19 patients, including a possible subacute care facility for patients who are sick but "do not require a higher level of care that you would find in a hospital," Poloncarz said.
Elective surgeries in Erie County hospitals stopped Friday to open up more hospital beds.
As for more drastic measures?
"There's lots of conversations that are going on in addition to whether or not we'll go to red," he said.
That's due to the state's revised winter strategy for dealing with the spread of the coronavirus, which factors in hospitalizations and keeping a close eye on post-Thanksgiving numbers, said Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul.
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"Yes, red is an option. But we really want to give Western New York the chance to turn this around," she said.
A shutdown akin to what the state endured this spring during the state's "pause" on non-essential would have "very, very serious consequences for our economy," she said.
"The governor wanted to have time after the Thanksgiving holiday to assess what is going on," she said Friday in a phone interview. "We are only at the eighth day. We are starting to see increases that we hope will taper off soon."
Color-coded zones
Across New York State, rates have risen so high that many regions would have passed the thresholds put in place for microcluster shutdowns.
Microcluster zone criteria were established relative to a county's population. Large counties like Erie County are in Tier I, the largest of four tiers, meaning a yellow zone could be enacted after 10 days of a seven-day average positive test rate of 2.5%. An orange zone could be reached after 10 days at 3%; a red zone after 10 days at 4%.
For Tier II counties, like Niagara County, the benchmarks are 3%, 4% and 5%. For Tier III counties like Chautauqua and Cattaraugus, 3.5%, 4.5%, 5.5%; and for Tier IV like Allegany, 4%, 5% and 6%.
The entire five-county Western New York region has had a 5% rate or higher for 13 straight days, enough to put much of the entire region in a shutdown red zone, according to the microcluster criteria. It has been above 6% for five days.
Statewide numbers have been rising and are expected to continue to increase during the holiday season. The overall state positive rate has been over 2.5% since Nov. 11, a run of 22 days. It has been above 3% for seven straight days; above 3.5% for five days and above 4% for the last three days.
Cuomo alluded to that arithmetic Monday when he announced his "winter plan" that focused on the hospitalization capacity needed to account for rising cases.
"Our positivity rates are going to be surpassed in a matter of time," he said, referring to the guidelines that have been in place. "They were all best-case scenario, and artificially low. Just think of the number 3%. There's no state in the nation that's at 3% now – it's only Vermont and Maine. So, at one point we have to recognize the reality that the cases are going to go up."
66 additional deaths
Erie County recorded a spike in deaths last month – at least 138 through Nov. 29 – and now county epidemiologists are analyzing 66 deaths that the state is counting toward the month's tally.
Poloncarz and Erie County Health Commissioner Dr. Gale Burstein said the county is studying the cases which the county announced Thursday. The deaths are believed to include people who died at their homes or in nursing homes or other assisted living facilities whose deaths weren't immediately categorized as being caused by Covid-19.
Epidemiologists are poring over medical records and demographic information to learn more about the deaths, Burstein said.
"It is a laborious process to get all that information," Dr. Burstein said.
November's death total was the highest Erie County has recorded since the first surge of the pandemic in April and May.
There may even be more added to the tally as more data comes in, Poloncarz said.
"We are seeing the rapid growth in deaths," he said, "... which we're not really surprised about because we saw a rapid growth in cases, we saw rapid growth in hospitalizations."
In the meantime, county and state officials implored Western New Yorkers to continue to wear masks, wash their hands, stay at least six feet apart from others and refrain from going to other people's homes, whether to watch a Bills game or for a small holiday party.
"We have never let up on that but we have to put an exclamation point on it now," Hochul said. "These next weeks heading into New Year's – these are dangerous times for us."
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December 05, 2020 at 04:45AM
https://buffalonews.com/news/local/not-red-yet-as-erie-county-sees-start-of-thanksgiving-spike-in-covid-cases/article_da6e0522-3581-11eb-ab72-a3f2b53556cd.html
Not red yet, as Erie County sees start of 'Thanksgiving spike' in Covid cases - Buffalo News
https://news.google.com/search?q=Red&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en
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