Increase in cases, hospitalizations pushed Hamilton County to red on COVID-19 alert map
Updated: 11:04 AM EDT Oct 7, 2020
Show Transcript
Uh huh. All right. Good morning. Thanks to Jay and Vicky for helping us interpret this morning, we're gonna run through the numbers. As always in Hamilton County, positive cases are a 13,953 hospitalizations are at 1167. And in Hamilton County, we have seen 332 deaths related to Covad. 19. So today, Greg Testerman and Greg is our only guest today, eyes going to do a deep dive into this data. He's going to explain the difference between orange and red on the governor's map and how Hamilton County shifted to read last week and what that means for the future. If you'll recall, we had a briefing last Wednesday at the in the morning. We were in the orange. By the afternoon, we were in the red, and so I received questions about what that meant. What was the indicator that tipped the scale, and what does that mean, moving forward for Hamilton County? So we've asked Greg to do a deep dive into the statistics into the trends into the numbers so that we can better understand how that happens and what to anticipate here in the future. So as we transition from summer to fall, we're entering Ah, challenging time. We're going to have fewer opportunities to get together outdoors, and there will be the temptation to bring gatherings indoors and ignore safe, distancing and mask wearing. This would also ignore the progress that we have made to date in Hamilton County. We have already seen an increase in positive cases recently and in the hospitalization rate recently. And so the concern here is that while we have made a great deal of progress in Hamilton County, flattening the curve, we're seeing a bit of an uptick here. And as we go into a season where gatherings, if there are any, will happen indoors, that's gonna provide an extra challenge here in this community. In addition to that, it's flu season, and so that's an added layer of concern. So we have to resist the temptation toe let up, and I know people are getting mixed messages. Um, our decisions have to be driven by data and by science and by public health experts, and so I think that is our message here today. So across the nation, we have seen some super spreader events where people have convened without masks or social distancing. We need to avoid this at all costs because people are getting sick. We need to continue to wear mass, continue social distancing and continue hand washing frequently. It's really that simple. So in other words, we need to keep it up and build on some of our previous successes here in Hamilton County. And so, without further ado, I'm gonna turn it over to Greg Custom on the Hamilton County health Commissioner so that we can get a deep dive into the data and what we are seeing happen now as a predictor of what's going to happen here in the future. Up up to you, of course. Thank you. Thank you, Commissioner. And good morning. So we continue to see some increase in Co va 19 cases here in Hamilton County over the last seven days, we've also started to see some increases in the number of hospitalizations. I'll dive into those numbers in just a minute, but I want to first start by talking about testing. Remember that we do have our website hc ph dot org's. I would encourage that if you need to get tested, you visit our website. There's also a link to the Health Collaborative Test and Protect Website, which has a variety of sites popping up throughout Hamilton County. This includes the first lady's for health event, which is happening on the 11th at sites throughout Cincinnati and Forest Park. So really encourage you to get tested if you need to remember when you get tested, if you're symptomatic or you have a known exposure to somebody who has had Koven 19 it's critical that you stay home. You keep at home until you get those test results. That way, you're not spreading cova 19 in our community, so let's dive into the data a little bit. I'll start with something that you're familiar with. This is our graph of cases. Um, as you look at our graph and the data, you can see that we are starting to trend upward near the tail end of this graph. We're seeing about 80 cases per day now. It's not uncommon to have a day with 100 cases, but we've had a few of those over the last week, and so we're keeping a very close eye on this data. for perspective. Our worst day for newly reported cases was on June 30th, in which Hamilton County saw 206 cases. So we're not We're not anywhere to where we were before the mask mandate went in place on July 8th. But we are starting to see some increases, so we'll continue to keep a close eye on that. I have often talked about the tests that occur for individuals. Uh, the positivity rate. We're not seeing any increases in positivity rates at this point that are unusual. So we've seen that 18 to 24 year range come back to a normal positivity rate when we look to the reproductive number. Um, this is also trending up here in Hamilton County. You can see it's kind of wiggled back and forth over the last month, above and below 1.0, from about 0.9 toe 1.2. Today we're at 1.16 and our region is at 1.10 This number is closely tied to cases, so you would appropriately see this number rise when we start to see a rise in cases as a reminder, we want to see this number below one. Anything above one means we're starting to see some additional spreading over 19 in our community, so we want to do the best we can tow. Follow these infectious does use measures to keep covert control. Now let's touch on hospitalizations. You're very familiar with the top graph. I showed this every week. This is data from our website HD ph dot org's you can see. Generally speaking, we do see some days with high hospitalizations, But the seven day trend line from our website remains fairly stable over the course of the last month. The bottom right graph is data collected by the Health Collaborative and their partners, including Cincinnati Children's Hospital. What's different about this graph is it has a line with shaded gray on either side of that. The shade indicates the statistical threshold in which we would expect to see cases or hospitalizations if they were following that trend line. I circled the last few days, which indicate we're starting to see an increase outside of the statistical threshold, so we'll continue to keep an eye on it, and you can clearly see they're starting to shift upwards. So we'll be watching those very closely. On the next graph, you can see intensive care unit admissions for the region. Once again, all of these admissions fall within the statistical threshold that I just discussed. However, you can start to see a slight increase, and so we'll be watching this number very closely with both what I just showed with hospitalizations and intensive care unit admissions. It's really important to remember that when people go to the hospital, they're using the hospitals that are closest to them. For example, a Claremont County resident that goes to the hospital might use Mercy Anderson, which is located in Hamilton County. For that reason, oftentimes, when we talk about hospital admissions and intensive care unit admissions, we're looking at them as a regional resource. As I as I share the information on these two metrics, I do want to share some good news. Our doctors have gotten much better at treatment. While there's no one perfect solution for Cove in, there are many more tools available now than they were back in early April. As a result, they've started to shorten the average length of stay for a covert patient in April. If you ended up in the hospital. The average length of stay was about 12 days. Today. That's much shorter, and we're looking at closer to 5 to 6 days, so a significant improvement. In addition, fewer patients who go to the hospital are ending up in the intensive care units in April, about 50% of patients that became hospitalized or ending up in the intensive care unit. Today, that's closer to 30% which is also a significant improvement. About half of those that end up in the I C U also end up on a ventilator just to give some additional perspective. Our doctors and medical professionals professionals have worked tirelessly throughout this pandemic to save lives and have clearly made a significant difference here in our community. So let's move to the Ohio Alert System, which got a lot of attention last week Is Hamilton County shifted from orange to red or level two to level three? I'm gonna run through each of the indicators and talk about each one, so you have some perspective Last eso. This gets updated and it can be found on coronavirus dot Ohio dot gov Once again, coronavirus dot Ohio duck of and it is updated every Thursday at 2 p.m. So the first indicator indicator one new cases per capita must be below 50 last week when the governor announced on Thursday, are our rate we were at 90.16 This metric has been flagged throughout the pandemic, meaning since this this dashboard was created every single week we've been above 50. Indicator to is new cases increase. This metric is looking for five consecutive days in which we're seeing cases increase. So last week we're in good shape with this metric. The third indicator, non congregate cases is looking to see if Koven is community spread or Maura function of congregate care settings. So throughout the pandemic, we know that the elderly are more susceptible. So in nursing home settings, we tend to Seymour cases of over 19. What this metric is showing us is here in Hamilton County, we see a lot of community spread outside of nursing homes, so this metric is flagged and has been flagged throughout the pandemic indicator. Four deals with emergency department visits. This is also looking at a five day period, so if at any point during five days, it increases this metric would be flagged. We were in good shape last week. Indicator five deals with outpatient visits. The metric is looking for five consecutive days, in which case is air increasing. You can tell from this, um, this indicator that a couple weeks ago we did exceed that, and so that will remain flagged throughout this week and on Thursday. That will hop off the chart. And so this will. Unless we see a new increase, this will no longer be flagged. Then in this indicator six. This is the new one that got flagged last week that pushed us over. And this is hospital admissions. The metric is looking for once again, five consecutive days. This was, um, the last seven day period that caused this to flag, even with numbers already decreasing again by September 27th because there were five consecutive days this metric caused the flag. Also worth noting. If you click when you go to the state's website, if you click on the eye or the information button, it does have a special note that indicates that some of the data is delayed and will be updated for up to 14 days. So in this case. If you look at this data a day earlier, it was not quite to the threshold, but by Thursday it had exceeded the threshold and caused us to go to read or to have another indicator. And then the final indicator on the state's dashboard is intensive care unit bed occupancy. If the hospital itself exceeds 80% and 20% of the admissions are associated with Cova 19 then this indicator would be flagged. In this case, we're doing very well and have no concerns. So I want to take a look at where we'll be on Thursday. And while I don't have a crystal ball, I can share with you my initial thoughts based on everything I just shared and where I know we're at today. So let's start with the first indicator we are. I'm gonna actually run through a couple days. So Friday we were at 94 cases per 100,000. On Monday, we were at 104 cases per 100,000 and yesterday 107 cases for 100,000. So this indicator, as I mentioned it, will remain flagged and I'll talk a little bit more about the significance of being above 100 just one moment indicator to will remain flagged here. I'm sorry. Um, let me take a peek at my data sheet. I know it's not indicator to I'm saying the wrong wrong number. Indicator three will remain flagged, which deals once again with congregate cases. We have remained that way throughout the pandemic, and I would anticipate it to stay above as well. I just shared that indicator five. That little yellow line will shift off, and I would anticipate that we be in compliance with indicator five and then the last indicator indicator six, which deals with those hospital admissions. It will continue to remain flagged for this week and the following week, regardless of if we see additional cases, because it will stay there for three total weeks. So last comment then about this is because we are exceeding exceeding the 100 mark on indicator one per the state's dashboard requirement. If that exceeds on Thursday, we will remain red for two additional weeks until that number drops below 100. So what I'm anticipating. Unless we see a significant shift in cases, this could be the case now I don't have any. As I mentioned, I don't really truly have a crystal ball in cases here in Hamilton County. Do fluctuate, For example, over the course of this week, one day in the last seven days, we had 145 cases in Hamilton County. One week later, we had 52 cases in Hamilton County. Those numbers are determined by how many people get tested and when the labs finished analyzing those test results so it is able to be shifted. And I can't tell you exactly where we'll be on Thursday at 2 p.m. But as the data is currently lining up, it looks like we as a county will most likely remain red. There's lots of data, and I wanted to make sure that I could share as much as possible. All of this data is available on our website or if it's not on our website directly, we're linking to it, so that includes some of the hospital in regional data. There's links on our website to get to that data. If you have an interest in diving and deeper, I wanna point out that there is no one perfect number or one perfect standard. People need to use this data to remember that Koven 19 is in our community. It's with us. And so this data really is helping us to understand the significance. But it's also helping us to remember that we as individuals need to continue to take precautions. Remember, keep sick at home, wash your hands, social distance and where your face masks. I encourage parents to wear their masks, talk with their Children about wearing masks and all of these preventative measures. We as a community should continue to be proud of our hard work and continue to work as a team to get through this pandemic. Thank you. Uh huh. Thanks, Greg. Um and so just to kind of connect the dots here, what does it mean to be read in Hamilton County? Uh and so one of the most significant pieces associated with being read is related to School District's and students. And so some of the school district's throughout the county use the governors indicators whether we're orange or red to determine whether or not those kids are gonna be it in school in person, or be virtual. And so there is some really real life impacts, uh, to whether or not we are orange or red. And so and that is one of the most dramatic of all of the impacts of the governor's statistics and how we're doing here in Hamilton County. And, as the commissioner said, it's up to all of us to try Thio, reduce these trend lines so that we go back into it, least the orange so that the business to stay open so kids could be in school in person. You know, it's really up to all of us and our efforts to make sure that we again built on some of the progress we've had in the past and get out of this red zone so that things can normalize here a little bit in Hamilton County. So with that Bridget, we're ready to take questions. Thanks, commissioner. Our first question comes from Chris Wetterich from the business career for you, Graduate. Good morning, Chris. Hi. Good morning, Greg. Can you What? What is the main cause? Do you think of of us hitting red on some of these indicators? You know, there's no great one solution to it. I think there is a lot of activity happening again in our county, which can definitely drive in increasing cases and cases air only found if you're getting tested. So there are instances where people are choosing not to get tested. You can't hide if you need the hospital. So if we start to see an increase in hospitalizations, that's a true reflection of covert 19 in our community. And then I just wanna make sure I understood some of the things you said. So the thing that the thing that's going to tip us over in the coming weeks, the reason we're going to continue to be read even if we go down on Lee three of the indicators is the 100 cases per 100,000. As long as we're above that, we're gonna be in the red. Is that Did I understand that correctly? Yes, that's correct. If we stay above 100 I confirmed this with the state Department of Health, if we stay above 100 on Thursday, even though we only have three indicators, we have to stay at at Red for two full weeks, with that indicator coming below 100. Okay. And then some of the indicators. You said we've been consistently over as the pandemic has gone on. I think those were non congregate cases. And e can't remember the other one. They said cases per 100,000 has to be below 50 to not be considered a flag. Throughout the pandemic, we have been above 50. And then if we get above 100 it kind of has special significance. Okay, Great. Oh, ahead. Thank you. Scott Wortmann is next for you, Greg. Hi, Scott. You're muted again. Eric, can you hear me? Yes, sir. Yeah. Sorry about that. Uh, Denise Driehaus mentioned at the top of the press conference that there were some super spreader events. Can you, uh, elaborate or specify? On what? That might what? Those were here locally. We're not seeing any one specific cause of a significant increase in Cove in 19. I'll pass it over to Commissioner DRI House to talk about the events. Hey, Scott. Yeah. So I was referring to some of the events that we know have taken place, and one, most recently, from my perspective in the Rose Garden, where we had a super spreader event where people were getting infected from that event you're talking nationally. That's right. I had another question for Greg. Yes, sir. So what? How are you anticipating With winter coming, you talked about flu season and people being mawr indoors. Uh, how are you preparing for the increase in cases and handling complaints? What are you putting in place? Well, I think the first thing I want to say with regards to flu is if we're doing all of the public health measures that we've been talking about since February associated with the pandemic, we should be in good shape. From my perspective for flu, You know, we're asking people to keep sick at home and wash your hands and wear your masks and socially distance. If you're doing these things that will greatly curb the spread of flu and cove in 19 it's got multiple benefits now, as far as my team, you heard me talk a little bit about shifting in cases. One day we have 54 cases. Another day. We have 100. In some cases. Our team is kind of built so that we can expand. We have a significant number of contact racers that are trained to do this work. In addition, We have trained a separate team of outbreak specialists that are working directly with our schools and businesses. So if we have a business or school, have a case or two of cova 19 our team is on the phone with them and walking them through the steps that they need to take to make their business safe. And then, lastly, you've heard me also talk about my own team. Our own staff have also been trained to do this work. So while they're all out doing their own jobs currently, if we got into a situation where we saw a very significant increase, we could pull them back into the office and they could help out with this work as well. One other question. With the increase in testing with the UH, 19 million that was put towards the, uh, pop up sites. Have you learned anything? Maura's faras uh, the spread of the disease here in Hamilton County. Has I taught you anything? No. You know, I was expecting to see a significant increase in the number of cases, but the positivity rate has remained fairly level or even slightly decreased. If you if you're following it here, in Hamilton County. And because the positivity rate is decreasing, that means the number of tests taken. We're finding less people positive, which that's a good thing, that that means that for the most part, our community is doing a really good job, even though today I'm reporting that we're seeing increases in hospitalizations and some cases are starting to show some signs of increases overall. Other than hospitalizations, we've remained fairly flat for the last month. Two months. Thank you. Absolutely. Next up is Mario Carbone. From WCPO for you, Greg. Good morning, Mary. Good morning. So obviously, we've been hearing yourself and other health officials telling people to go get your flu shot because of, obviously cove it and the flu coming at the same time. Are you guys hearing any issues of delays or shortages in the vaccine? We've heard a couple, um, local places, say they've been getting delays and had to turn people away for the flu shot. I have not personally heard this. I know it is available for purchase. I know that many pharmacies, including Walgreens and Kroger's and Myers you could go just while your grocery shopping get your flu shot and I have not heard of any shortages. And, uh um, instances where people are being turned away here locally, it's possible there is one location or two locations that ran out temporarily, but nothing major at this point. Okay? And just to go off that I mean, if somebody does go to a place where they don't have the vaccine, um, is there a list or anything you guys have of places you can get it? Or would you just say toe check pharmacies and Yeah, I would recommend you call ahead if if if you have bad luck in the first place, you try would call ahead. But it is widely available at this point. You If you have a primary care physician, you certainly can get it there. I know little clinics and small clinics throughout the county offer it so it is widely available this year. Thank you. Next up, we have Brian Hamrick from wlwt. Good morning. Hi. Hey. Just checking in. I know we've kind of touched on this a little bit, but I'm still a little confused in terms of where? What? What are the tracers finding and where really, where? The spots where this is being spread. I mean, I know at one point there were concerns about bars or restaurants in schools, this sort of thing. What are these contract tracers finding as they go through and try and figure out exactly where this is spreading. Thanks for the question. So our team, when we reach out to somebody who has a positive case of Cova 19 we're finding that it is truly community spread. We're seeing employees of businesses. We're seeing people that have gone out in the community and don't know where they got over 19 from. It is all over. I want. Since you mentioned schools, I wanna give a shout out to our schools. They have done just a phenomenal job with their plans and keeping their kids safe while they're in school. We have seen such a small number of cases. When you think about the 178 schools in Hamilton County, I believe through this week we've only had about 70 cases of Cova 19 within our schools within our student population, that is a phenomenal job out of our schools. They have also assisted with helping with doing some of that contact tracing As you know, each school has a seating chart for each student, and they're able to quickly isolate any Children that were within 6 ft of that positive case. And so we're doing a great job controlling cove in 19 in these environments. Thank you. That appears to conclude our questions from reporters. All right, Thank you. We e thank you all would agree that we're very lucky to have Greg Testerman, uh, as the health commissioner here in Hamilton County. Greg, thank you for the deep dive into the data into our understanding of going from orange to red from render orange and and what drives those statistics? So again, I thank you for joining us. Just a reminder that voting has started in Hamilton County. As of yesterday morning, um, there was a line wrapped around to the Board of Elections. And so just a reminder. There are four ways to vote. Get a nap ct ballot and mail it in, get an absentee ballot and drop it in the drop box at the Board of Elections in Norwood. Vote early at the Board of elections in Norwood or vote on election day. So, um, just to remind everybody. Early voting seems to be very popular this year, so don't forget to vote. Thank you all for joining and we'll see you next week.
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Increase in cases, hospitalizations pushed Hamilton County to red on COVID-19 alert map
Updated: 11:04 AM EDT Oct 7, 2020
Hamilton County officials gave an update Wednesday on the latest COVID-19 numbers and how they pushed the county into the red category on Ohio's alert map.Hamilton County joined others last week on a list of 11 Ohio counties that are in the red alert level, which means there is "very high exposure and spread" in those areas.Hamilton County had not been at the red alert level since July 30. Health Commissioner Greg Kesterman said the number of new cases is starting to trend upwards and is likely due to more activity happening throughout communities in the county.The health commissioner said new cases are mostly community spread, for example, employees at a workplace or people who go out and don't know where they got it from. Kesterman said the county met several indicators last week that caused it to be upgraded to the red alert, including new cases per capita and hospital admissions. As long as the county continues to see more than 100 new cases per 100,000 people, it will remain in the red alert category.The health commissioner also noted the county is seeing an increase in hospital admissions, saying that's a true reflection of COVID-19 spreading in the community. "COVID-19 is in our community, it is with us, this data is helping us remember significance and to take precautions," Kesterman said.He advised that as long as people continue to take the public health measures, the county should be in good shape.Kesterman said his team is working to expand contact tracing and outbreak specialists who work with schools on steps they need to take if they experience an outbreak According to Kesterman and Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine, schools are doing a good job on keeping kids safe and reporting any cases and taking steps to prevent it from spreading.
Hamilton County officials gave an update Wednesday on the latest COVID-19 numbers and how they pushed the county into the red category on Ohio's alert map.
Hamilton County joined others last week on a list of 11 Ohio counties that are in the red alert level, which means there is "very high exposure and spread" in those areas.
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Hamilton County had not been at the red alert level since July 30.
Health Commissioner Greg Kesterman said the number of new cases is starting to trend upwards and is likely due to more activity happening throughout communities in the county.
The health commissioner said new cases are mostly community spread, for example, employees at a workplace or people who go out and don't know where they got it from.
Kesterman said the county met several indicators last week that caused it to be upgraded to the red alert, including new cases per capita and hospital admissions.
As long as the county continues to see more than 100 new cases per 100,000 people, it will remain in the red alert category.
The health commissioner also noted the county is seeing an increase in hospital admissions, saying that's a true reflection of COVID-19 spreading in the community.
"COVID-19 is in our community, it is with us, this data is helping us remember significance and to take precautions," Kesterman said.
He advised that as long as people continue to take the public health measures, the county should be in good shape.
Kesterman said his team is working to expand contact tracing and outbreak specialists who work with schools on steps they need to take if they experience an outbreak
According to Kesterman and Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine, schools are doing a good job on keeping kids safe and reporting any cases and taking steps to prevent it from spreading.
October 07, 2020 at 10:04PM
https://www.wlwt.com/article/live-hamilton-county-officials-give-update-after-being-upgraded-to-red-on-covid-19-alert-map/34299528
Increase in cases, hospitalizations pushed Hamilton County to red on COVID-19 alert map - WLWT Cincinnati
https://news.google.com/search?q=Red&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en
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