California made a big change Friday when it said goodbye to the coronavirus watch list and hello to a new, tiered “blueprint” governing coronavirus restrictions. And several counties, including two in the Bay Area, may see more changes as soon as Sept. 8, when they could move into less restrictive tiers.
Under the new system, instead of moving on and off the watch list, counties are placed in one of four color-coded tiers representing coronavirus risk levels: Purple is widespread risk, red is substantial risk, orange is a moderate and yellow is minimal. Each tier has restrictions on which businesses are allowed to open.
As of the Aug. 28 launch, all but two of the Bay Area’s nine counties are in the purple tier, the highest risk category. Only San Francisco and Napa counties are in the next level down, the red tier.
But that may change the day after Labor Day, when the state reassesses each county with updated data, and some counties could be assigned new tiers.
Such quick progression for counties in the purple tier, less than two weeks after their initial assignment, would be a one-time occurrence, the state said. In the future, it’ll take longer to progress to less restrictive levels.
How the new system works
Instead of the many metrics involved with the watch list, two critical thresholds now govern whether counties move up or down: coronavirus case rate and positive test rate.
To progress to the next less restrictive level, a county must remain in its current tier for a minimum of three weeks and meet the next tier’s more stringent requirements for two consecutive weeks.
However, if the case rate and/or positive test rate has fallen into a more restrictive tier for two consecutive weeks, the county is bumped back to that tier.
Data are reviewed weekly, and tiers are updated every Tuesday.
Counties are placed in the purple tier when they have more than 7 new daily cases per 100,000 people and a positive test rate of more than 8%. To move into the red tier, they must report 4 to 7 daily new cases per 100,000 and a positive test rate of 5% to 8% for two weeks.
Case rates adjusted for coronavirus testing
If a county is conducting more coronavirus tests than the state average, then the state adjusts its case rate using a calculation that reflects the testing volume. Adjusted case rates are now reflected on the Blueprint for a Safer Economy interactive map, though they were not initially included in the rollout.
That’s why San Francisco, with a daily case rate of 9.8 per population of 100,000, has an adjusted case rate of 6.4.
In addition to business reopenings, the new system also has guidelines for when schools can reopen for in-person instruction. Counties in the purple tier cannot reopen schools unless the health department grants a waiver, for K-6 elementary schools only. Once a county is in the red tier for at least two weeks, schools have the state’s green light to reopen, though counties and districts can still decide to impose stricter rules than the state.
Based on recent data, seven California counties have the potential to move to the red tier, including Marin and Santa Clara in the Bay Area, and nearby Santa Cruz. Marin’s case rate is 5.9 with an adjusted case rate of 4.6, and a positive test rate of 3%.
New system ‘an improvement,’ Marin official says
Matt Willis, Marin County health officer, called the new system a “more nuanced framework” than the watch list.
“It’s an improvement,” he said. “It does seem like overall a better strategy at the state level to have more categories in which to place counties. There are other protections built into this that are important."
One of those protections is that counties must hold in a certain tier for three weeks before moving to the next one, which Willis said is important so “we aren’t opening up too quickly.” On Tuesday, Willis appeared in a COVID-19 update video and said the county’s case rate is about 6 new cases per day per population of 100,000, and the percent positive rate is about 3%.
“Based on those rates, Marin county is slated to move from Tier 1 to Tier 2, the red level, starting next week if our case rates don’t increase significantly,” he said in the video. “These numbers are significantly better than they had been one month ago.”
Santa Clara County’s case rate is 8.6, but the tier-assignment rate adjusted for testing levels is 6.7, with a percent positive rate of 3.5%.
“Our data for Aug. 25 did meet the criteria for the red tier, and so if we do meet those criteria for the week that’s ending today, we would then be able to move into the red tier on Sept. 8,” Santa Clara County Counsel James R. Williams said in a board of supervisors meeting on Tuesday.
Kellie Hwang is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. Email: kellie.hwang@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @KellieHwang
The Link LonkSeptember 03, 2020 at 06:54AM
https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Some-Bay-Area-counties-could-progress-to-red-15538808.php
Some Bay Area counties could progress to 'red' reopening tier next week — here's why - San Francisco Chronicle
https://news.google.com/search?q=Red&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en
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